Preseason Preview: Washington Commanders
By Ryan Lashin, of Swish Tribune
Let’s discuss one of the more slept on teams in the NFL this season, being the Washington Commanders.
It may be easy to overlook them considering they play in arguably the hardest division in football,
but they were solid defensively last year and have the pieces of the puzzle to succeed.
Let’s break down the team into evaluating the offense, defense, schedule, and a concluding outlook.
Last year, record wise, they went 8-8-1, and split games with each in division opponent (tied with Giants).
So let’s look at how the Commanders got better compared to their division rivals
to clarify that these splits are the Commanders’ floor this season.
The Eagles are very good just like last year. The Giants are not much better than last year
but are more confident and got a receiving threat in Waller.
The Cowboys regressed, making them a candidate for worst in the division.
The Commanders have Eric Bieniemy as a co-head coach, and he is already getting the team into shape.
He made the Chiefs offensive schemes, and he will show his worth with Washington’s offense this year.
They also got Chase Young healthy and a still stacked defense with more young talent exemplified by Emmanuel Forbes.
Offense:
The Commanders have Eric Bieniemy designing their scheme. He is incorporating more screen passes and passes over the middle. They are also going to continue to utilize Gibson in the receiving game in a Jerick McKinnon esk role. He is taking what made the Chiefs special and adjusting it to the Commanders. Obviously they are not the Chiefs, but that same practice and training regiment that he brought is being utilized, and it has shown to train winners who play confidently. Sam Howell will be the starting quarterback with Brissett backing him up. Personally, I love Sam Howell. I think he will be more than a competent starter, and could become a franchise guy. What I am getting at is that he is an upgrade from last year, and they still were almost playoff contenders, so think about what that says for this season.
Washington has a dangerous receiving duo in Terry Mclaurin and Jahan Dotson, not to mention Curtis Samuel in this new offensive scheme. Logan Thomas has shown to be a serviceable tight end. The problem appears to be with the offensive line, who are currently ranked 27th by PFF. Charles Leno Jr may be their best player at tackle, but Sam Cosmi is young and could break out. Either way, teams have shown that they can win despite their offensive line, but also that it can wreck their season (Bears). We will have to watch out for that throughout the season as it is their weakest spot. Dotson is looking to prove himself this year, and he has shown great potential which has been seen in practice and in flashes last season. Mclaurin, meanwhile, is one of the most underrated players there is. Last season, he was targeted 120 times, but only 80 of those passes were even catchable. He caught 77 of them. Just get the man a quarterback and he will cook. The Washington receivers also average some of the deepest yards per reception of any team, making them explosive. This pairs well with Howell’s “big arm”, which Mclaurin and the coaches have raved about during training camp.
Defense:
Washington’s defensive line was ranked 3rd by PFF as it has monsters like Chase Young, Jonathan Allen, and Montez Sweat. Injuries may have plagued them last year, however. Despite being #12 in sacks, they were last in tackles and close to it in interceptions. They have addressed their secondary with Emmanuel Forbes in this year’s draft, and the reports from training camp have been pretty positive. I would expect that with young breakout candidates like Jamin Davis and proven young talent like Kamren Curl, Forbes will fit right in by making Washington one of the strongest defenses there is. Linebackers is where they lack the most depth on defense, and it will be up to Jamin Davis to right the ship, and lead this group of linebackers to a successful season. Jack Del Rio, although not the best head coach, has been a very successful defensive coordinator for them, and based on his experience and new defensive schemes during training camp, I would say that the Commanders will at least be unpredictable in what they bring to the table defensively, but will have the talent to back up whatever scheme they chose.
Schedule Analysis:
The Commanders will be able to ease into the season with matches against the Cardinals and Broncos, which I would expect them to win. The Broncos might be a challenge, but I have a feeling that the Broncos won’t have themselves put together by that point in the season. If the Commanders cannot beat the Cardinals, then I was just wrong about them this season, but I feel very strongly that they will beat a depleted Cardinals team and boost the confidence of Howell in the process. Week 3 they will have an opportunity to prove themselves against the Bills, which I find unlikely to be a victory, but it is always a possibility for such a skilled defensive team when Josh Allen, although great and talented, isn’t the safest with the football. They won’t get any love in week 4 either, facing off against the Eagles. We assume that at worst, the Commanders split with every division opponent. Even if they lose an extra, such as getting swept by the Eagles, they very well might sweep the Cowboys themselves. This starts them off with 3 wins and 3 losses. In their schedule they will have likely “in the bag” games vs the Falcons, Bears, and Patriots. The Rams are a team that is on the decline who match up well against the Commanders, but ultimately by the time they play, the Commanders will already have collapsed or will be hitting their stride, allowing them to beat the Rams. My money is on the latter. The Commanders will have challenging games vs the Dolphins, Jets, 49ers, and Seahawks. I believe that Geno Smith will regress slightly and that the defensive line will make that game a nightmare, forcing at least two turnovers. This may also pose a problem for Tua and the Dolphins, who as shown in their game vs the Steelers last year, struggle offensively when facing a tough defense that pressures them early on in the game. In addition, we saw this again vs the Packers when Tua had those costly turnovers. However, I still think the Dolphins best the Commanders in that one. I would expect for at most, the Commanders to walk away with two wins from those teams. Thus, the Commanders have a win range of about 8-10 wins, a +/- from the 9 outlined wins I presented.
Overall the Commanders are poised for a successful season, but it will ultimately come down to how well their scheme suits Sam Howell and if he can deliver behind a poor offensive line. On defense, the linebackers will need to step up to assure that the defense can keep the Commanders in games during Howell’s growing pains. We outlined some guaranteed wins and stats that support splits within the division, meaning that the Commanders should be in contention until the very end.
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