Who are the safest players to draft in the first round of Fantasy Football?

 

Written by Oliver William, of Swish Tribune

Fantasy football is finally upon us! With another year filled with talent, trades, and rookies it begs the question of who are the safest and riskiest picks of your  2023 fantasy football draft Even though a bad first-round choice won't make you win your league, it can certainly make you lose it. 

Travis Kelce: If you play fantasy football, an explanation here isn't needed. The production and fantasy success of Kelce over the last few years is undeniable. In the last seven seasons, Kelce has finished as the TE1 (PPR) six times! While he is clearly the most valuable TE, Kelce’s 2022 performance solidified his fantasy value amongst all NFL players. In 2022, Kelce would have finished as the WR5, scoring just five fewer points than the WR4 Stefon Diggs.  Also In 2020, the season be produce the second-best year of all time at the position. Kelce gives the single biggest positional advantage of any player in the draft pool on an annual basis. When your league mates are scrambling to the waiver wire to fill their tight end slot with someone destined to grab two or three catches in the game, your roster with Kelce is racking up double-digit points. Kelce hasn't missed a game in nine years for injury (he missed one in the Covid season). That makes him a perfect match to start my roster off with a high-floor option that gives me a weekly positional advantage.

It may sound impossible, but there is certainly a path for Kelce to have an even more productive season in 2023. Kelce finished 2022 as the sixth-most targeted player, amassing 152 targets. However, Kelce’s most significant competition for targets, JuJu Smith-Schuster, is no longer in the picture and the Chiefs are trotting out a handful of unknowns at the receiver position. It is entirely possible that Kelce has a more significant target share than ever before.

Draft Kelce.

Christian McCaffrey: Yes, this may come as a shock due to his injury history, but I will ensure you that the cards line up in his favor this year for an injury-risk season. First let's discuss how he produces when he is healthy, McCaffrey ended up as the second overall running back in 2022 behind Austin Ekeler. He ended the season with 244 carries for 1,139 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground, adding 85 catches for 741 yards and five touchdowns in the receiving game. 

Christian McCaffrey’s Five Most Recent Fantasy Football Finishes 

2022: RB2 

2021: RB38 (Injured, 7 GP) 

2020: RB53 (Injured, 3 GP) 

2019: RB1 

2018: RB2

2022 Advanced Stats + Rank Amongst RBs: 

Yards / Route: 2.0 (1st) 

Targets / Game: 7.2 (2nd) 

% of Team Targets: 22% (1st) 

High-Value Touches / Snap: 0.15 (2nd) 

% of Team High-Value Touch: 85% (1st) 

CMC is the clear RB1

McCaffrey will continue to have fewer touches than he had in Carolina which mitigates his injury risk. In Carolina, he was the entire offense, Elijah Mitchell should continue to factor into the San Francisco backfield, but this is a good thing for McCaffrey managers in regard to the star’s health with his production still not being a concern. San Francisco's offensive line ranked fifth in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking efficiency over the 2022 campaign. Williams headlined the group's success, finishing the year as the best-graded tackle in the NFL for the third-straight season. When CMC was under this offense, he finished as the RB2.  Christian McCaffrey now has had the time to develop himself into the offense under one of the best offensive lines in football. 

Good luck with your draft this year, and if you see these two on the board for your first-round pick, make sure to snag them.